Surprise, AZ—85374
Real Estate Data & Market Trends
Key Metrics at a Glance
Home Price Trends — Surprise, AZ
As of Oct '25, the median home price in Surprise, AZ is $388,000, with a year-over-year change of -4.6%. This indicates that home prices in Surprise, AZ are decreasing. According to Zillow, the 1-year price projection is -0.1%, suggesting a relatively flat housing market in the next year.
Cost per Home Type
| Home Type | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
All Homes | $388,000 | -4.6% |
| Single Family | $392,000 | -4.9% |
| Condos | $214,000 | -8.5% |
Cost per Home Size
| Home Size | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
1 Bed | $207,000 | -5.9% |
2 Bed | $379,000 | -5.5% |
3 Bed | $383,000 | -4.2% |
4 Bed | $413,000 | -4.2% |
| 5 Bed | $481,000 | -3.2% |
% of Housing Stock
Rental Trends — Surprise, AZ
As of July '25, Rentcast reports the average rent in Surprise, AZ is $2,270, with a year-over-year rent change of 1.8%. Per bedroom, the median rent as of July '25 in Surprise, AZ is studios: $1,530, 1-bedrooms: $1,500, 2-bedrooms: $2,560, 3-bedrooms: $2,300, 4-bedrooms: $2,160. The most common rental property sizes in Surprise, AZ are 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom, accounting for 35.2% and 31.8% of the rental stock.
| Type | Median Rent | Average Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Average Rent | $2,000 | $2,270 |
| Studio Rent | $1,530 | $1,530 |
| 1 Bed Rent | $1,450 | $1,500 |
| 2 Bed Rent | $2,400 | $2,560 |
| 3 Bed Rent | $2,040 | $2,300 |
| 4 Bed Rent | $2,140 | $2,160 |
% of Rental Stock
Property Listings — Surprise, AZ
As of Oct '25, Realtor.com reports that the median days on market for a home in Surprise, AZ is 47. This is a increase of 25.0% from last year, suggesting that homes are sitting on the market longer than last year. The percentage of listed homes with a reduced price is 27.0%, representing a large inventory and a lot of supply pressure on home prices.
| Metric | Zip Code Average | Year over Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
Median Listing Price | $388,000 | -6.0% |
Listing Count | 295 | 8.0% |
| Listings as % of Homes | 1.3% | 8.0% |
Days on Market | 47 | 25.0% |
Demographics — Surprise, AZ
As of the latest ACS Survey released in 2023, Surprise, AZ has a population of 41,000, which has decreased by -14.2% over the past 5 years. Surprise, AZ is a moderately popular place for families, as children make up 15.4% of the population. The area has a moderately educated workforce, with 30.1% of adult residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. There are some residents working remotely, with 15.3% reporting working from home.
| Metric | Latest Census | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
Population | 41,000 | -14.2% |
% Under 18 | 15.4% | 1.3% |
% Seniors | 42.4% | 15.2% |
% WFH | 15.3% | 155.0% |
% w/ College Degree | 30.1% | 8.7% |
As of the latest ACS Survey released in 2023, Surprise, AZ is a predominantly white area, with 77.7% of the population identifying as white. The white population has grown by 5.0% in the last 5 years. The second most common race or ethnicity in Surprise, AZ is hispanic, making up 12.3% of the population. Foreign-born residents account for 7.8% of the population in Surprise, AZ, and this percentage has increased by 8.3% as of the ACS Survey 5 years prior, suggesting more immigrants are calling the area home.
Race and Ethnicity
| Metric | Latest Census | 5-Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
% White | 77.7% | 5.0% |
% Black | 3.9% | -17.0% |
% Hispanic | 12.3% | -33.9% |
% Asian | 1.6% | 23.1% |
% Foreign Born | 7.8% | 8.3% |
Mortgage and Risk — Surprise, AZ
Surprise, AZ lacks sufficient mortgage origination data for analysis.
Mortgages
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
Total Loan Originations | N/A |
% Conventional Loans | N/A |
% Government Loans | N/A |
% Investor Loans | N/A |
% Second Loans | N/A |
% Cash Out Refinance | N/A |
Loan Activity
No data available
Rentals and Section 8 — Surprise, AZ
As of 2024, the percent of homes in Surprise, AZ under the Section 8 program is 0.9%. This is considered low, suggesting that the neighborhood is sparsely composed of Section 8 homes. Section 8 opportunity is good when HUD pays more than market rent. 1-bedroom and 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom units appear to be good home sizes to consider for Section 8 housing in Surprise, AZ, because HUD payments exceed market rent, while 2-bedroom units do not.
Section 8 Market Size
Total Units under HUD | 34 |
Total Units Section 8 | 34 |
% Rentals under Section 8 | 0.9% |
% Occupied Section 8 | 83.0% |
Section 8 Opportunity
| Home Size | HUD Premium | Market Rent | Max HUD Rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom | $500 | $1,450 | $1,950 |
| 2 Bedroom | -$140 | $2,400 | $2,260 |
| 3 Bedroom | $1,000 | $2,040 | $3,040 |
| 4 Bedroom | $1,260 | $2,140 | $3,400 |
Affordability — Surprise, AZ
Home Price to Income Ratio
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
| Home Price to Income Ratio | 5.3 |
| Median Home Price | $388,000 |
| Median Household Income | $78,700 |