Surprise, AZ—85378
Real Estate Data & Market Trends
Key Metrics at a Glance
Home Price Trends — Surprise, AZ
As of Oct '25, the median home price in Surprise, AZ is $332,000, with a year-over-year change of -3.5%. This indicates that home prices in Surprise, AZ are decreasing. According to Zillow, the 1-year price projection is 0.1%, suggesting a relatively flat housing market in the next year.
Cost per Home Type
| Home Type | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
All Homes | $332,000 | -3.5% |
| Single Family | $343,000 | -3.4% |
| Condos | $134,000 | -10.1% |
Cost per Home Size
| Home Size | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
1 Bed | N/A | N/A |
2 Bed | $337,000 | -3.7% |
3 Bed | $342,000 | -3.1% |
4 Bed | $374,000 | -3.1% |
| 5 Bed | N/A | N/A |
% of Housing Stock
Rental Trends — Surprise, AZ
As of July '25, Rentcast reports the average rent in Surprise, AZ is $1,840, with a year-over-year rent change of -1.6%. Per bedroom, the median rent as of July '25 in Surprise, AZ is 1-bedrooms: $1,450, 2-bedrooms: $1,590, 3-bedrooms: $2,060, 4-bedrooms: $1,990. The most common rental property sizes in Surprise, AZ are 3-bedroom and 1-bedroom, accounting for 46.2% and 19.8% of the rental stock.
| Type | Median Rent | Average Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Average Rent | $1,800 | $1,840 |
| Studio Rent | N/A | N/A |
| 1 Bed Rent | $1,120 | $1,450 |
| 2 Bed Rent | $1,580 | $1,590 |
| 3 Bed Rent | $1,850 | $2,060 |
| 4 Bed Rent | $1,950 | $1,990 |
% of Rental Stock
Property Listings — Surprise, AZ
As of Oct '25, Realtor.com reports that the median days on market for a home in Surprise, AZ is 51. This is a increase of 16.0% from last year, suggesting that homes are sitting on the market longer than last year. The percentage of listed homes with a reduced price is 39.0%, representing a large inventory and a lot of supply pressure on home prices.
| Metric | Zip Code Average | Year over Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
Median Listing Price | $348,000 | -10.0% |
Listing Count | 41 | 36.0% |
| Listings as % of Homes | 0.6% | 36.0% |
Days on Market | 51 | 16.0% |
Demographics — Surprise, AZ
Surprise, AZ lacks sufficient demographic data for analysis.
| Metric | Latest Census | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
Population | 9,400 | N/A |
% Under 18 | 23.6% | N/A |
% Seniors | 19.6% | N/A |
% WFH | 19.7% | N/A |
% w/ College Degree | 16.6% | N/A |
Surprise, AZ lacks sufficient race and ethnicity data for analysis.
Race and Ethnicity
| Metric | Latest Census | 5-Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
% White | 54.5% | N/A |
% Black | 5.0% | N/A |
% Hispanic | 37.7% | N/A |
% Asian | 0.6% | N/A |
% Foreign Born | 8.6% | N/A |
Mortgage and Risk — Surprise, AZ
According to HUD data as of 2023, there were 33 mortgage originations in Surprise, AZ, of which 79.0% of loans were conventional mortgages. The average loan-to-value was 68.0%, with 36.0% above 90% LTV (very high). This implies large mortgage risk in Surprise, AZ. Investor activity is low, as 0.0% of loans were by investors. 15.0% of loans were cash-out refinances, suggesting many homeowners are tapping equity.
Mortgages
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
Total Loan Originations | 33 |
% Conventional Loans | 79.0% |
% Government Loans | 21.0% |
% Investor Loans | 0.0% |
% Second Loans | 3.0% |
% Cash Out Refinance | 15.0% |
Loan Activity
Rentals and Section 8 — Surprise, AZ
As of 2024, the percent of homes in Surprise, AZ under the Section 8 program is 16.1%. This is considered high, suggesting that the neighborhood is heavily composed of Section 8 homes. Section 8 opportunity is good when HUD pays more than market rent. In Surprise, AZ, all tracked home sizes have HUD payment amounts above market rent, suggesting strong Section 8 opportunity across the board.
Section 8 Market Size
Total Units under HUD | 223 |
Total Units Section 8 | 223 |
% Rentals under Section 8 | 16.1% |
% Occupied Section 8 | 78.0% |
Section 8 Opportunity
| Home Size | HUD Premium | Market Rent | Max HUD Rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom | $360 | $1,120 | $1,480 |
| 2 Bedroom | $140 | $1,580 | $1,720 |
| 3 Bedroom | $460 | $1,850 | $2,310 |
| 4 Bedroom | $660 | $1,950 | $2,610 |
Affordability — Surprise, AZ
Home Price to Income Ratio
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
| Home Price to Income Ratio | 5.5 |
| Median Home Price | $332,000 |
| Median Household Income | $62,900 |