Surprise, AZ—85388
Real Estate Data & Market Trends
Key Metrics at a Glance
Home Price Trends — Surprise, AZ
As of Oct '25, the median home price in Surprise, AZ is $443,000, with a year-over-year change of -3.8%. This indicates that home prices in Surprise, AZ are decreasing. According to Zillow, the 1-year price projection is 0.0%, suggesting a relatively flat housing market in the next year.
Cost per Home Type
| Home Type | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
All Homes | $443,000 | -3.8% |
| Single Family | $443,000 | -3.9% |
| Condos | N/A | N/A |
Cost per Home Size
| Home Size | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
1 Bed | N/A | N/A |
2 Bed | $363,000 | -7.4% |
3 Bed | $400,000 | -4.3% |
4 Bed | $451,000 | -4.0% |
| 5 Bed | $522,000 | -3.0% |
% of Housing Stock
Rental Trends — Surprise, AZ
As of July '25, Rentcast reports the average rent in Surprise, AZ is $2,460, with a year-over-year rent change of 5.1%. Per bedroom, the median rent as of July '25 in Surprise, AZ is 1-bedrooms: $1,500, 2-bedrooms: $2,900, 3-bedrooms: $2,310, 4-bedrooms: $2,510. The most common rental property sizes in Surprise, AZ are 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom, accounting for 35.5% and 33.3% of the rental stock.
| Type | Median Rent | Average Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Average Rent | $2,300 | $2,460 |
| Studio Rent | N/A | N/A |
| 1 Bed Rent | $1,600 | $1,500 |
| 2 Bed Rent | $2,900 | $2,900 |
| 3 Bed Rent | $2,100 | $2,310 |
| 4 Bed Rent | $2,380 | $2,510 |
% of Rental Stock
Property Listings — Surprise, AZ
As of Oct '25, Realtor.com reports that the median days on market for a home in Surprise, AZ is 66. This is a increase of 4.0% from last year, suggesting that homes are sitting on the market longer than last year. The percentage of listed homes with a reduced price is 39.0%, representing a large inventory and a lot of supply pressure on home prices.
| Metric | Zip Code Average | Year over Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
Median Listing Price | $499,000 | -4.0% |
Listing Count | 224 | 27.0% |
| Listings as % of Homes | 1.5% | 27.0% |
Days on Market | 66 | 4.0% |
Demographics — Surprise, AZ
As of the latest ACS Survey released in 2023, Surprise, AZ has a population of 35,000, which has increased by 19.0% over the past 5 years. Surprise, AZ is a popular place for families, as children make up 30.0% of the population. The area has a moderately educated workforce, with 31.0% of adult residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. There are some residents working remotely, with 17.3% reporting working from home.
| Metric | Latest Census | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
Population | 35,000 | 19.0% |
% Under 18 | 30.0% | -7.7% |
% Seniors | 11.5% | 12.7% |
% WFH | 17.3% | 103.5% |
% w/ College Degree | 31.0% | 18.3% |
As of the latest ACS Survey released in 2023, Surprise, AZ is a predominantly white area, with 61.4% of the population identifying as white. The white population has shrunk by 7.9% in the last 5 years. The second most common race or ethnicity in Surprise, AZ is hispanic, making up 21.5% of the population. Foreign-born residents account for 8.5% of the population in Surprise, AZ, and this percentage has increased by 3.7% as of the ACS Survey 5 years prior, suggesting more immigrants are calling the area home.
Race and Ethnicity
| Metric | Latest Census | 5-Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
% White | 61.4% | -7.9% |
% Black | 6.1% | -24.7% |
% Hispanic | 21.5% | 15.0% |
% Asian | 2.3% | -36.1% |
% Foreign Born | 8.5% | 3.7% |
Mortgage and Risk — Surprise, AZ
Surprise, AZ lacks sufficient mortgage origination data for analysis.
Mortgages
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
Total Loan Originations | N/A |
% Conventional Loans | N/A |
% Government Loans | N/A |
% Investor Loans | N/A |
% Second Loans | N/A |
% Cash Out Refinance | N/A |
Loan Activity
No data available
Rentals and Section 8 — Surprise, AZ
As of 2024, the percent of homes in Surprise, AZ under the Section 8 program is 1.2%. This is considered low, suggesting that the neighborhood is sparsely composed of Section 8 homes. Section 8 opportunity is good when HUD pays more than market rent. 1-bedroom and 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom units appear to be good home sizes to consider for Section 8 housing in Surprise, AZ, because HUD payments exceed market rent, while 2-bedroom units do not.
Section 8 Market Size
Total Units under HUD | 15 |
Total Units Section 8 | 15 |
% Rentals under Section 8 | 1.2% |
% Occupied Section 8 | 83.0% |
Section 8 Opportunity
| Home Size | HUD Premium | Market Rent | Max HUD Rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom | $720 | $1,600 | $2,320 |
| 2 Bedroom | -$210 | $2,900 | $2,690 |
| 3 Bedroom | $1,520 | $2,100 | $3,620 |
| 4 Bedroom | $1,670 | $2,380 | $4,050 |
Affordability — Surprise, AZ
Home Price to Income Ratio
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
| Home Price to Income Ratio | 4.4 |
| Median Home Price | $443,000 |
| Median Household Income | $107,000 |