Modesto, CA—95354
Real Estate Data & Market Trends
Key Metrics at a Glance
Home Price Trends — Modesto, CA
As of Oct '25, the median home price in Modesto, CA is $392,000, with a year-over-year change of -0.4%. This indicates that home prices in Modesto, CA are flat. According to Zillow, the 1-year price projection is 0.0%, suggesting a relatively flat housing market in the next year.
Cost per Home Type
| Home Type | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
All Homes | $392,000 | -0.4% |
| Single Family | $393,000 | -0.5% |
| Condos | $274,000 | -3.5% |
Cost per Home Size
| Home Size | Median Home Value | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
1 Bed | $295,000 | 7.3% |
2 Bed | $353,000 | 0.0% |
3 Bed | $407,000 | -0.5% |
4 Bed | $457,000 | -0.9% |
| 5 Bed | N/A | N/A |
% of Housing Stock
Rental Trends — Modesto, CA
As of July '25, Rentcast reports the average rent in Modesto, CA is $1,720, with a year-over-year rent change of 6.8%. Per bedroom, the median rent as of July '25 in Modesto, CA is studios: $1,120, 1-bedrooms: $1,350, 2-bedrooms: $1,800, 3-bedrooms: $2,230, 4-bedrooms: $2,200. The most common rental property sizes in Modesto, CA are 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom, accounting for 40.0% and 31.9% of the rental stock.
| Type | Median Rent | Average Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Average Rent | $1,740 | $1,720 |
| Studio Rent | $1,100 | $1,120 |
| 1 Bed Rent | $1,350 | $1,350 |
| 2 Bed Rent | $1,750 | $1,800 |
| 3 Bed Rent | $2,200 | $2,230 |
| 4 Bed Rent | $2,200 | $2,200 |
% of Rental Stock
Property Listings — Modesto, CA
As of Oct '25, Realtor.com reports that the median days on market for a home in Modesto, CA is 41. This is a decrease of -4.0% from last year, suggesting that homes are sitting on the market shorter than last year. The percentage of listed homes with a reduced price is 33.0%, representing a large inventory and a lot of supply pressure on home prices.
| Metric | Zip Code Average | Year over Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
Median Listing Price | $420,000 | 6.0% |
Listing Count | 61 | -19.0% |
| Listings as % of Homes | 0.4% | -19.0% |
Days on Market | 41 | -4.0% |
Demographics — Modesto, CA
As of the latest ACS Survey released in 2023, Modesto, CA has a population of 26,600, which has increased by 7.5% over the past 5 years. Modesto, CA is a popular place for families, as children make up 27.6% of the population. The area has a poorly educated workforce, with 17.4% of adult residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. There are few residents working remotely, with 5.2% reporting working from home.
| Metric | Latest Census | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|
Population | 26,600 | 7.5% |
% Under 18 | 27.6% | 10.4% |
% Seniors | 13.4% | 8.1% |
% WFH | 5.2% | 8.3% |
% w/ College Degree | 17.4% | 14.5% |
As of the latest ACS Survey released in 2023, Modesto, CA is a predominantly hispanic area, with 47.9% of the population identifying as hispanic. The hispanic population has grown by 22.5% in the last 5 years. The second most common race or ethnicity in Modesto, CA is white, making up 35.8% of the population. Foreign-born residents account for 21.1% of the population in Modesto, CA, and this percentage has increased by 33.5% as of the ACS Survey 5 years prior, suggesting more immigrants are calling the area home.
Race and Ethnicity
| Metric | Latest Census | 5-Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
% White | 35.8% | -26.6% |
% Black | 6.2% | 21.6% |
% Hispanic | 47.9% | 22.5% |
% Asian | 6.2% | 106.7% |
% Foreign Born | 21.1% | 33.5% |
Mortgage and Risk — Modesto, CA
According to HUD data as of 2023, there were 275 mortgage originations in Modesto, CA, of which 64.0% of loans were conventional mortgages. The average loan-to-value was 67.0%, with 42.0% above 90% LTV (very high). This implies large mortgage risk in Modesto, CA. Investor activity is low, as 3.0% of loans were by investors. 10.0% of loans were cash-out refinances, suggesting few homeowners are tapping equity.
Mortgages
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
Total Loan Originations | 275 |
% Conventional Loans | 64.0% |
% Government Loans | 36.0% |
% Investor Loans | 3.0% |
% Second Loans | 0.0% |
% Cash Out Refinance | 10.0% |
Loan Activity
Rentals and Section 8 — Modesto, CA
As of 2024, the percent of homes in Modesto, CA under the Section 8 program is 13.1%. This is considered low, suggesting that the neighborhood is sparsely composed of Section 8 homes. Section 8 opportunity is good when HUD pays more than market rent. 4-bedroom units appear to be good home sizes to consider for Section 8 housing in Modesto, CA, because HUD payments exceed market rent, while 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom units do not.
Section 8 Market Size
Total Units under HUD | 659 |
Total Units Section 8 | 611 |
% Rentals under Section 8 | 13.1% |
% Occupied Section 8 | 90.3% |
Section 8 Opportunity
| Home Size | HUD Premium | Market Rent | Max HUD Rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedroom | -$170 | $1,350 | $1,180 |
| 2 Bedroom | -$220 | $1,750 | $1,530 |
| 3 Bedroom | -$60 | $2,200 | $2,140 |
| 4 Bedroom | $290 | $2,200 | $2,490 |
Affordability — Modesto, CA
Home Price to Income Ratio
| Metric | Zip Code Average |
|---|---|
| Home Price to Income Ratio | 5.7 |
| Median Home Price | $392,000 |
| Median Household Income | $65,600 |